There are plenty of signs pointing to various kinds of trouble for Donald Trump heading into the 2020 election. His terrible and worsening poll numbers are the most clear sign. Look a bit further, and the sheer absurdity of Trump’s “Hail Mary” ideas (hanging out with the Taliban, etc) is another sign that Trump doesn’t have a plan for turning this around. But last night Trump got hit with what might be the most devastating 2020 news for him yet.
Back when Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff narrowly lost in a special election in a deeply red Republican district in April of 2017, Palmer Report pointed out that this was a fantastic sign for the Democrats. It meant that, if the political mood remained roughly the same through the 2018 midterm elections, the Democrats would make huge gains. If the Democrats were going to closely compete in deeply red districts, it meant they were going to win in slightly red districts, swing districts and blue districts. Sure enough, the Democrats had a huge blue wave in 2018. This brings us to last night.
Democratic candidate Dan McCready very narrowly lost last night in a special election in a deeply red Republican district. This means that if the current political climate remains roughly the same through the 2020 election, the Democrats will once again win in slightly red districts, swing districts and blue districts. In other words, Donald Trump and the GOP are currently on track to get blown out in 2020.
The 2020 election is still more than a year away, and a lot can happen between now and then. No one can afford to get remotely complacent. Elections are won by those who put in the work to get people to turn out and vote for their side. But last night confirmed that as of right now, Donald Trump’s 2020 prospects are utterly horrible. Trump may be in an even deeper hole right now than his poll numbers suggest.