In the end, it all comes down to five states. The good news for Joe Biden is that the states he needs to win seem to be trending in his direction as the sun is coming up.
Joe Biden has clearly pulled ahead in Wisconsin. Decision Desk has him up by about 17,000 votes; MSNBC has him up by about 21,000 votes. Kornacki just said on air that there isn’t much left to come in for Wisconsin one way or the other.
An hour ago Joe Biden was down by a couple hundred thousand votes in Michigan, but now Decision Desk says he’s behind by just 2,200 votes. With most of the uncounted votes in Biden-friendly places like Detroit, expert Nate Cohn tweeted that it’s trending toward Biden and that it “may not be particularly close.”
We should potentially know the Wisconsin and Michigan results by sometime later today. If Joe Biden wins them both, then he’ll only need to win one state out of Nevada, Pennsylvania, and. Georgia.
Nevada has turned out to be surprisingly close, but Cohn is seeing a “pretty good set of news” for Biden in the state. Pennsylvania and Georgia could go either way at this point. But if Biden wins Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, then he’s at 270, it’s over, and won’t have to wait for Pennsylvania or Georgia.
From here on out, this election will come down to two things: 1) math, and 2) understanding the demographics of the remaining uncounted voters. If you’re watching this on TV, now is the time to listen to Kornacki (or his CNN counterpart), not the political commentators who are musing about their gut feelings.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report