Get ready to pile on: Joe Manchin just signaled he’s ready to cave on HR1
After the media spent January and February trying to convince us all that the normally kind of harmless Joe Manchin suddenly had evil magic powers and was going to use them, it apparently ended up going to Manchin’s head. He very loudly insisted he’d never vote for HR1 voting rights legislation, backing himself into a no-win corner. I predicted that he would end up looking for a way to support HR1 without calling it HR1, and now that appears to be what’s happening.
Manchin needs HR1 (or something similar) to pass in order to have a fair shot at his own reelection. He’s also found out the hard way that coming out against voting rights was a good way to make himself a target. Twitter activists have been howling against him. Black activists held a protest march against him this week in his home state. Manchin can’t sustain his position amid this backdrop. Yet he doesn’t want to be seen as simply flip flopping.
A few days ago, Manchin announced that he was willing to provide a list of things that he supported and didn’t support in HR1. We took this as a sign that he had blinked. Sure enough, today Manchin indeed delivered that list to Democratic leaders – and he signaled his willingness to vote for HR1 if it includes these revisions.
Joe Manchin is clearly looking for a way out of this no-win corner he’s backed into. So now is the time to ramp up the pressure on him. Keep in mind that whatever HR1 revisions he’s calling for today are just a starting point in the negotiations. The more strongly we support Chuck Schumer, and the more pressure we place on Manchin, the less leverage Manchin will have, and the revisions he ultimately ends up with will be smaller.
As always, it’s not about deciding whether Manchin is “good” or “bad.” It’s about bending him to our will and getting what we need out of him at this time. In other words, it’s about winning. He’s in the process of caving. Let’s go make it happen and win this. Call his office, email him, tweet him. Make sure you do it in a firm but constructive way. Put pressure on Sinema too; our guess is that she’ll cave in whatever way Manchin caves, since she seems to have no idea what she’s doing anyway.
