Runoff elections are always tricky to forecast. There’s no presidential election, and in fact nothing else on the ballot, to naturally drive turnout. So it ends up being a matter of which side wants it more, and which side can figure out how to generate turnout.
But this isn’t just any runoff election. Forces have aligned such that the Georgia runoffs will determine control of the Senate, and thus will define the trajectory of the incoming Biden presidency. This comes even as a defeated Donald Trump and his Republican Party have been seditiously trying and failing to overthrow the presidential election, even as Trump’s allies keep urging people not to bother voting in the runoffs at all.
So it’s a big deal that on the first day of early in-person voting in the Georgia runoffs, turnout was higher than it was on the first day of early in-person voting in Georgia in the presidential election. That’s right, there’s apparently even more interest in these runoff races to neuter the Republican Party, than there was in voting Trump out.
This is great news for the Democrats, but of course this is just day one. Runoff elections always end up being tricky to win, one way or the other. But it seems clear that Georgia Democrats are intent on trying to win this. You can help out by donating to Democratic Party candidates Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff here.
Bill Palmer is the publisher of the political news outlet Palmer Report