The idiot went and did it. So now what?
Last time Donald Trump was in power, he seemed to threaten war with our enemies every other day. But it quickly became clear that these were idle threats. Trump kept making them, but he ended up leaving office having carried out very little military action. But the Trump we’re seeing now is not at all the same Trump we saw last time he was in power. This version of Trump is feeble, dementia riddled, often unable to speak coherently, and it often seems as if Trump is just sitting there while his babysitters run the presidency. So perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised when, after a week of making threats, Trump went ahead and bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities last night.
As of now, Iran has yet to retaliate. It’s possible that something will have played out in the brief time between when I’m writing this and when you’re reading it, as tends to happen in rapidly developing situations. Iran’s leadership will want to save face in the eyes of its own people, so it doesn’t get overthrown. But it’s not clear how Iran could retaliate. And that may be the problem.
Iran knows that if it attacks a U.S. military base, the attack would 1) fail, and 2) provoke more bombings by the United States. So instead Iran may be more likely to use backchannels to launch attacks against the U.S. or its people in a way that gives Iran plausible deniability, but still forces the Iranian people to see that this Iranian regime is too strong to be overthrown.
It’s also possible that Iran will simply do nothing. World leaders fear how recklessly mentally incompetent Trump is, but they all feel like they can outwit him. And they’re right. What better way for Iran to make Trump look weak and irrelevant than to brush off his attacks and go about their business?
In any case, even as we wait for more shoes to drop (or not), there is the crucial question of how this bombing will impact Trump’s viability. Last night I wrote that, just months into his term, Trump was already a lame duck. He has a low approval rating, his own party leaders think he’s a joke, and even large chunks of his base seem to be opposed to what he just did in Iran.
Trump (or whichever babysitter may be steering him toward decisions as his dementia continues to further incapacitate him) is rolling the dice here in the hope that this attack will cause mainstream Americans to temporarily rally about Trump in a time of (pseudo, non-declared) war. Or that mainstream Americans will simply be so pleased that we bombed Iran, they’ll stop hating Trump and like him more. Or that this Iran debacle will at least scuttle any headlines about Trump’s numerous other problems and scandals for a week.
It feels most likely that only the latter of those three things will happen. All that Trump may get out of this – a dangerous stunt that could have literally caused World War III – is a week’s reprieve from headlines about how feeble and unpopular he is. Then again, with a semi-comatose Trump having struggled to read a very short statement from a teleprompter on live national television last night, it’s possible that this Iran debacle will only serve to put a larger spotlight on his worsening dementia symptoms – and force serious questions about someone that addled having control of the United States military.
So go about your day today, live your life, and let this be Trump’s problem. Don’t live in fear. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. If anyone brings up the Iran bombing and isn’t sure what to make of it, there’s your opportunity to explain that a feeble Trump did it solely as a distraction from how unpopular he is. Our job is to simply make Trump as unpopular as possible, because that’s what causes a failing President to truly lose his power.
