I hate conspiracy theories. But the Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump vote totals do look rigged.

During the eighteen months I spent covering the 2016 election as a political journalist, I devoted a good amount of my editorial time to shutting down empty conspiracy theories. And that’s easy enough to do, as most of them are based on no evidence to begin with, and can be disproven by a mountain of opposing evidence. But since election night, when voting totals came in across the nation that simply felt wrong in their result and particularly in their patterns, I’ve been digging into the numbers and the math – and these results do indeed look rigged.

After more than a week of studying the results against everything we already knew heading into election day, whether it be Hillary Clinton’s mathematically insurmountable early voting lead in Florida, or the inexplicable disappearance of her overwhelming African-American support in North Carolina between the primary vote and the general election vote that can’t be explained by voter suppression alone, or the fact that every swing state Donald Trump won in an upset was by the exact same convenient percentage, I laid out half a dozen ways in which these numbers were unlikely. And the reaction in the three days since I published it has been overwhelming.

Former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, who tends to be smartly cautious in choosing her words, tweeted my article and encouraged her constituents to read it. So did Rosie O’Donnell and a number of other public figures. That alone doesn’t lend any mathematical credence to what I thought I had uncovered, but it did serve to demonstrate just how many Americans were jarred by these numbers – not simply because Trump expectedly won, but specifically how he supposedly won.

One political operative reached out to me privately and asked for more details on Florida, so I’ve gone back and laid out this detailed math demonstrating that Trump would have needed to get somewhere between 62% and 74% of the Election Day vote in Florida in order to climb out of his early voting hole and win the state by one percent, as he supposedly did. In real world terms, in closely contested swing state, such Election Day percentages simply aren’t possible.

And it’s subsequently been pointed out to me that Trump’s one percent victory in every surprise swing state – which I had already flagged as being statistically unnatural – was also just large enough to prevent some automatic recounts from kicking in. I’m continuing to dig into the numbers and consult with others. But while I can’t yet prove that the results are rigged, it’s been fairly easy to overwhelmingly demonstrate that the numbers do look rigged from any objective angle. For once the conspiracy theorists appear to be right.


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Bill Palmer is the founder and editor in chief of the political news outlet Palmer Report




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9 Comments

  1. Bea on November 20, 2016 at 5:38 pm

    Let me share with you something that was told to me on election day in California. It is as you cannot believe. I will attempt to get to the point. On November 8, @ 8pm Pacific Time, by friend called me. He sounded as if someone had died. He said, Trump is going to win, it is going to be close and there will be a surprise at the end. While in the limousine, his friend heard the conversation, that Trump would win the election. It would be close and a surprise at the end. He called me, since what he had been told 3 months ago, was unfolding. This friend of mine, is a very educating, and became a citizen 10 years ago. He does not have proof, no tape anything. The election went exactly as was told 3 months ago. You are right on the conspiracy theory, and there is no proof. They were very clever.

    • Penny on November 22, 2016 at 2:26 am

      Trump is the worst thing that could have happen as a leader in this country.He has been compromised by putin,we r in serious trouble in this country.

  2. Chad on November 20, 2016 at 5:44 pm

    You’re doing great work Bill. I’ll continue watching this space.

  3. John J Foelster on November 21, 2016 at 10:25 am

    Clarification:

    Having determined rigging likely took place, we should look for evidence on HOW it was done. Voting Machine hacking seems the only feasible method. Different brands have different vulnerabilities, and the AV-OS has had many in the past. Different jurisdictions use different machines. Look for a pattern. Then zero in on the simplest scenario where what you are seeing could have happened.

    More to the point, I had been working a previous case of voting machine rigging in the state of Alaska in 2008 and 2014, and by figuring out how the 2008 attack had to have been done had zeroed in on the identity of the hacker. I don’t have tangible proof that this monstrosity on Trump’s behalf was the work of my boy, but all my instincts are screaming that it is. I also have a pretty good idea how Trump would have learned about him: His “first client”.

    I have written up a detailed report on how the 2008 Alaska attack was carried out, but it reads like Nathaniel Hawthorne and James Joyce collaborating on auditing Trump’s tax returns. I need to circle back with my Alaska contacts and explain to them what happened.

  4. Tracey on November 21, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    I have a friend (black) who lives in Georgia. She voted for Hillary and the elecronic voting machine showed she had voted for Trump. She called over a poll worker to fix it. The same thing happened to her niece, who unfortunately did not seek help in fixing it. My friend works in a nursing home, and said residents had experienced the same thing. If there was a conspiracy, I wonder if Trump was behind it — he looked so shocked that he won.

  5. Angela on November 23, 2016 at 7:06 am

    I too looked at some numbers. I was troubled by the results in WI. Trump appears to have won in many rural WI counties by 25-35 percentage points as compared to Obamas general range of 3-5 percentage points in 2012. If you look at the voter registration stats it means that almost every single voter that identifies as independent would have had to vote for Trump and every single registered republican. I am neither a mathematician or a statatiscian but it appears on its face that that large of swing would have been highly unlikely. Its as if he received just enough votes to over come the urban vote and combined with computer voting and a strict voter suppression law you get a victory.

  6. Rob on June 24, 2017 at 10:20 am

    Check the timeline totals too. Review the timing of each precinct totals votes vs past performance too. The shape may come together out of that

  7. Carrie on June 24, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    Trump always said the election was rigged. We just didn’t know he meant “in his favor”. So he can always say he didn’t lie.

  8. Larah Buffington on June 25, 2017 at 11:45 am

    I am a registered Republican. I voted for Clinton in Georgia and the machine changed my vote to Trump. I did call over the official and she said the machines had been acting up all day. She told me to wait until it asked if I would like to change anything then change my vote to the appropriate candidate. If you were not extremely astute in your observations you might have overlooked this error in the machines.

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