That’s ballsy, I hear you say? Look, I am not 100% convinced, but right now I think the momentum is piling on, and on balance I think that Brexit is more likely than not to happen. Below I have pointed out why I think that this is the case.
1. Jeremy Corbyn & Labour – The Labour party have already moved, offering a second referendum will be enough to bring down the government. The short term damage to heart broken Brexiteers can be overcome by the legions of new labour supporters. Can Corbyn resist the temptation of power? He will have to overcome his own ideology to do this.
2. So far, the Tories have kicked the can down the road with the Irish problem (not forgetting the case for Gibraltar). Eventually, and this is not in doubt, the hard Brexiteers will have to choose between a hard border and the Brexit they imagined. At this point the government will fall and we will be in the throes of another general election. Whichever party offers a second referendum will get into power, all of this will probably happen late summer.
3. The Remainers on the conservative side will in the end bring down the government; already Michael Heseltine has suggested he would prefer Corbyn over Brexit. TheRemainers and reluctant brexiteers will eventually be forced to vote and this will bring down the government. See point 2…
All of these are likely scenarios but if the Tories offer a second referendum (very very unlikely) instead then we may see the outcome being a new party and a Eemain landslide.
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